Rulers of the region who have woken up to a recurring nightmare in the morning are divided into two clear camps, depending on their reactions to the shock-inducing events: those who yield to the will of the people and those who choose to slaughter them.
The Presidents of Tunisia and Egypt belong to the first type. It took less than a month for both of them to understand that the time had come for them to leave. Bin 'Ali, the Tunisian, fled; Mubarak went to his voluntary exile inside his country. In Middle Eastern terminology, the price of their exit in terms of the killing and injuring of their citizens was but a trifle.
Mu'ammar Al-Qadhafi, is without a doubt the second type. Forbidden to make a mistake: if it weren't for the hail of bombs that NATO troops rained down upon him from the sea and air, and without the hundreds of Tomahawk missiles that fell down on his officers and chased them away, Qadhafi would currently be feting his victory against the rebels who oppose him, and the road from Benghazi to Tripoli would be lined with the corpses of thousands of citizens who were forced to pay the price of victory with their lives. But who cares about that?
There are a thousand reasons why it is possible to categorize Bashar Al-Assad as the second type, the type who does not hesitate to kill more and more before surrendering his seat. We will list 5 of the reasons:
1. The family gene pool: Despite the talk (which is still going on) revolving around completely different casualty totals, there is a thread tying together the slaughter which his father, Hafiz Al-Assad, carried out against Muslims in Hama in 1982 and the killings of this week in Dara', in As-Sanamayn, and even in Damascus: the authorization to shoot to injure, not to warn.
2. The sectarian affiliation: Bashar is not unique; for he is a representative of the 'Alawi sect, a minority, but which enjoys the boons of being in power. If he leaves without a fight, the rage of the people (and the loss of privileges) will rise up against the sect in full force.
3. Internal contentment: Al-Asad sees himself as the hero of the battle against Israel; quite simply, he doesn't believe that the time has come for him to leave.
4. Regional backing: Ahmadinejad and Hassan Nasrallah, both allies with the younger Al-Asad, likewise don't believe that he should leave.
5. The international moral duplicity: Al-Asad considers himself to be in a much better position than Qadhafi. He knows that Obama, Sarkozy and Cameron will think a thousand times over before hazarding firing off rockets on the Presidential Palace in Damascus, if only to protect the rebels.
In truth, therefore, he does not have a sound reason to get up and leave at this point in time, even if it was suddenly discovered that a large part of the Army and security forces at his disposal (not those affiliated with the 'Alawi sect) refused to slaughter civilians and join the protesters. Until this happens, he will be allowed to continue firing shots and killing, promising reforms and telling people not to worry. Not one western leader will lift a finger.
*italics mine in order to clarify meaning
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment